This was a tough one for me.
I know not to place too much emphasis on the day-to-day shifts in the polls, but still, my sense is that they are starting to contract. The Drudge Report was touting the Gallup tracking poll, which shows a 2 point Obama edge for the second-straight day. An AP-Yahoo Internet poll today has Obama at 44, Mccain at 42. Even Daily Kos, which has had Obama with a 10-plus point lead, had him at only plus 6 today.
At Barberton Chicken, where I ate lunch with a friend, he told me not to worry — the best electoral vote Web sites have been modeling for this contraction, all along.
On my way to Cleveland, Uncle Jon told me not to worry — McCain’s debate performance is going to hurt him, ultimately, with independents.
Loyal, too, told me not to worry — Obama had a few days with lower averages, but in a few days, when the polls start reflecting the final debate, they’ll go back up again. Still, Loyal did note that “the only thing that has me concerned” is the Daily Kos figure.
And that’s Loyal. If he had a Web site, it’d be called OptimisticDemocrat.com.
And then, I spent the afternoon in Beachwood, Ohio, a suburb of Cleveland, canvassing.
I’ve been out a number of times this cycle doing voter registration. This was my first day canvassing. I have to say, I was very impressed.
We were targeting the Jewish community — folks with names like Baruch, Tali, and Yury. We were armed with hand-outs about Barack Obama’s positions on Israel. We spoke, ahead of time, about how to address any concerns people had about Jesse Jackson’s recent comments. (See blog: “Has Jesse Jackson Lost His Mind?”)
My wife and I canvassed four years ago for Kerry in Iowa City, and it was a disappointing experience. Some of the people we spoke to had already been contacted four and five times. It seemed like no one was really keeping track. One woman was so angry with repeat canvassers, she told us that she was a Democrat — but was voting Bush out of spite. Then she slammed the door on us.
This was a much more organized effort. I went only to homes identified as Jewish and undecided. If folks were home, we were to place them on a seven-point scale — from strong Obama to strong McCain. Also, we were to ask them if they wanted to volunteer, or if they’d consider voting early.
It was a beautiful fall afternoon. Leaves blowing lazily in the street. Kids walking home from school. When I rang doorbells and stood waiting, I’d turn my face up, and feel the sun on my cheeks. Many homes were decorated with cob webs and black cats and skeletons; sneering pumpkins and laughing witches.
I met six Jewish voters, all told. Five said they were definitely voting, or had already voted, for Obama. The other was undecided, but he’d recently had surgery, and confessed to being drugged up on something that made him wobbly at the door.
“I love Obama,” one woman said. “I talk him up all the time.”
Another woman said she’s voting for Obama, despite her fear that someone will try to assassinate him. She had been on the fence, she said. The turning point, for her, was when McCain picked Palin as a running mate. As a woman, she said, that felt like a slap in the face.
I have to say, if you are a neurotic Democrat like me, and the days have started to seem stuck in the sludge — is the world still turning? have we moved any closer to Election Day in the last few hours? – the best thing you can do is grab a clipboard and go ring doorbells.
Sniff the air. Leave some literature in someone’s door handle. Ask people what it is they are still worried about.
There’s something about the concrete gesture of speaking to another voter, one to one, that — at least momentarily — makes all the other stuff — from the polls to the pundits to the latest robocalls — seem, well, invented.
It’s scary as hell to pick yourself up and knock on doors to have political conversations with people you don’t know. But, take it from me, it’s scarier not to.
Watch this Sunday to see if Colin Powell endorses Obama. That could be a huge lift for the campaign.
Shabbat Shalom.
I spoke to my son, Nate, today. He is a Field Organizer (paid) in eastern Montgomery County, PA. He told me that they had a very big response in his area after the debate. The Republicans and Independents were so energized they showed up in large numbers —at his field office. They called to ask about signs. They came in to get info. Nate told me about one self-identified Republican he spoke to on the phone who wanted to know if he could get a sign. Nate invited him to pick one up. When he arrived, Nate spoke to him again and got him to make calls …and before he left the man made a $100 donation to Obama’s campaign. WOW!
This area in the past has leaned strongly Republican – generally well-to-do suburban voters. And if these voters are turning off to McCain it’s likely the same thing is happening elsewhere. This is a new era and even long time Republicans are turning their backs on the negative campaigning and the cynical ploy of picking Palin to satisfy the “religious” right.
My prediction: 54-44 for Obama. McCain has been knocked out, he just hasn’t fallen to the canvas yet.
Just had to add these from HuffPo:
On his talk show on WPHT today, conservative Philadelphian Michael Smerconish endorsed Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.
Smerconish did so by reading a couple paragraphs from his pending op-ed in the Philadelphia Inquirer.
“I’ve decided,” he said. “My conclusion comes after reading the candidates’ memoirs and campaign platforms, attending both party conventions, interviewing both men multiple times, and watching all primary and general election debates.
“John McCain is an honorable man who has served his country well. But he will not get my vote. For the first time since registering as a Republican 28 years ago, I’m voting for a Democrat for president.
And: “Then, the Chicago Tribune, a newspaper that has not endorsed a Democrat for president since it was founded in 1847, followed suit”
I think drdad has it right, although it is my hope the margin will be larger.
Remember, our goal is not simply to get Obama elected, it is to allow him to govern. So down ticket races are critical, a “mandate” is critical, a romp is important. So doubt away and finish. Let’s swamp the Republicans across the lans. Let’s turn GA and ND blue. Let’s elect a D in Congress in WY. WIth continued effort and money these things are possible. They are coming within our reach. Now we need to grab them.
Loyal
It is quite ugly and tensions are running high. Oho has become “ground zero” for Republican efforts to suppress the vote. We should be very grateful that we have a secretary of state with the backbone of Jennifer Brunner. The good news is that there are far more neurotic Republicans right now than ever before.
Hey ND,
I’m heading to the Obama office here in Akron later today. We (Maren and I) went to the Hillary rally in Youngstown yesterday. It was fun. They actually pulled us and put us on stage — Maren was the golden ticket — but we stepped down b/c Mare was so scared by all the cheering. Anyway, I loved seeing Tim Ryan, Gov. Strickland, and especially Hillary. I felt so inspired to spend these last days doing whatever I can to help the campaign. So, I’ll be doing just that. I’m also going to encourage everyone I know to spend any free time they have volunteering. It was so striking to sit at the rally with my five month old baby…literally holding the future in my hands. How can I not do everything in my power to help win this election? How can I turn my children’s future over to a team of people who don’t represent my ideals, my hopes, my morals, my ethics…my America??
Onward, neurotic democrats!
Amalie,
AMAZING story about being in Youngstown with Maren. (That cheering can be SCARY!) I know just how you feel, about having the future in your hand — and, I totally agree, about the imperative to do everything in your power to win this election. I keep thinking: I WILL NOT wake up on Nov. 5, not having done everything I can for the cause. I urge everyone else to do the same — even if it’s only one minute a day!
GRosen –
Jennifer Brunner is the unsung hero of this election. If Barack wins Ohio, it will be in no small measure because of her. And she’s been repeatedly slimed by Ohio GOP. Her courage and grit in the face of this onslaught is an example for us all.
I thought you might respond to Loyal with your research about the DOWNSIDE of a landslide.
drdad —
LOVE the nate story. knowing he’s on the case in philly makes me a weeeeeeeee bit less neurotic.
I hope u and loyal are right … an eternity to go.