Neurotic Democrats love company.
And, clearly, I am far from alone this afternoon among Democrats fearing this headline tomorrow: “Should Obama Dump Biden From Ticket?”
John Neffinger, who is something of an expert on how a politician’s non-verbal communication impacts their electoral success, sees a potential “Nightmare VP Scenario” for Democrats. “Biden Beware!” he writes. Here’s the nut:
Not only do standard debate questions work in Palin’s favor, she’s also helped by a regimented debate format, because unlike in the wide-ranging interviews she has flubbed, there is usually much less room for follow-up questions to try to pin her down. Put all this together and you see it was no fluke that Palin did well in her gubernatorial debates.
So what would happen if Palin did okay, or even a little better than okay, in tonight’s debate? First of all, relative to prevailing expectations, it would be a triumph. The story would be how well Palin did, which could get people thinking maybe they had underestimated her, which could imply maybe they had underestimated McCain. Given the attention this matchup will receive, that might even be enough to nudge the momentum back their way.
But Palin won’t be alone under the lights: Joe Biden and Gwen Ifill will be there too. When you imagine their reactions, the scenario gets even more interesting.
First of all, Joe. Biden is a smart guy, and I like him a lot, but there is a reason he has never quite made it out of the middle of the pack of presidential contenders. He often seems to want to wow people, and tries a little too hard. He puts on a show, saying things like “Ladies and gentlemen…” and flashing his great toothy grin – sometimes even grinning when he’s talking about war and terrorism and suffering. As many have recognized, this could prove disastrous: if he goes after Palin, he risks coming off as overbearing, obnoxious, a high-handed know-it-all.
Gwen Ifill, meanwhile, has problems of her own. Turns out, she has a book coming out, about the African-American experience, with Obama’s name in the title. This is unfortunate, and, certainly, it opens her up to questions about potential conflict of interest.
She is fast becoming a part of the story tonight. She can count on the fact that she will be harshly criticized if she’s perceived as holding Palin’s feet to the fire; and she’ll be similarly criticized if she doesn’t.
The McCain campaign is trying to cow her, and it just may work.
For my money, she should have recused herself.
Meanwhile, the NY Times had an interesting op-ed this morning, featuring questions that a number of people would ask tonight, if they were sitting in Ifill’s shoes. I really like this first grouping:
It is 9 a.m., and the president is traveling abroad. A terrorist attack on the United States occurs. You have 10 minutes to prepare to move to the now famous bunker at the White House to deal with the incident. Whom will you take with you into the bunker? And, once there, what do you do in the first hour?
You hear all the arguments presented to the president concerning a decision he must make regarding spending for a major national program. The recommendation from the cabinet and staff is clear, but you disagree with them strongly. How and where do you express yourself, assuming you elect to share your views with the president?
— CRAIG FULLER, the chief of staff for Vice President George H. W. Bush from 1985 to 1988
My impression is that Palin doesn’t have the wisdom to answer these kinds of questions in a meaningful way. And that Biden might not be able to resist throwing out an Encyclopedia of not-entirely-relevant knowledge, losing us all in the process.
Let the games begin.
I expect that Palin will do better than expectations (which are incredibly low) and it is likely that Biden will say something stupid. Commentators will talk about a Palin comeback. However, whatever bounce she gets McCain will be minor and short lived.
Grosen:
I hope you’re right.
It’s going to be interesting to see how she attacks Obama tonight. The first time she did it, she played to a roaring crowd, and she had more credibility than she does now. I hope Biden is ready with an effective retort.
-ND
McCain just quit Michigan – he’s down between 3 and 8 points in Florida, 2 and 8 points in Ohio, and between 8 and 15 points in PA (according to the latest polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/). Nationally, if the polls are combined McCain is 5.7 points behind (same website). Palin would have to look like the second coming of FDR and JFK combined to make up for this. The CBS interviews of Palin have been devastating to McCain because they have created serious doubt about his judgment and reinforced his reputation for impulsive decision-making, as did his reaction to the economic crisis (and can you believe he failed to speak on the Senate floor re: the bailout yesterday?). Palin’s real trouble (I think I’ve said this before) is that she seems to have had no intellectual curiosity (perhaps not surprising in a person who takes the Bible literally and seems immune to scientific reasoning) and therefore has no depth or breadth of knowledge and little basis for making connections with new information. When asked by Couric about any other Supreme Court decisions she disagreed with, she could not even connect with the recent overturning of the Exxon Valdez payout, which directly affected the people of her state, even though at the time she had decried it. And that was less five months ago.
My Obama minutes:
We’ve got a great team here in the Dayton area and I’ve spent the last couple of days creating a 1,000 person database of people who have indicated an interest on working on the campaign so we can communicate with them efficiently. We are using a website (call-em-all.com) that makes robocalls to alert everyone to our activities. We have great participation already and we are hoping this will increase it.
Dr Dad!
Amazing news about your web site! You’re the perfect person to create this database. I’m so impressed with your ongoing hard work (in this election and in past elections) in a part of the country that is markedly conservative. We could all learn something from your optimism and work ethic!
Regarding your comment on the debate: I don’t think Palin looked like FDR and JFK combined. More on this in a moment …
And I agree with you about her lack of intellectual curiosity — you’ve consistently made this point, and made it well. I wish Biden had held her feet to the fire a bit more, when she kind of hedged on whether global warming was man-made. His answer was good, but her lack of curiosity wasn’t really further exposed by it.
-ND
As a Communication Coach, I look at this political debacle through the lens of communication. Throughout history, bad guys have often communicated very effectively. Why do Republicans often communicate more effectively with the American public?
The American public tends to gravitate toward candidates who speak like them: often incorrectly or using odd syntax. When did people start electing people like them instead of people like they aspire to be?
for tips to watch the next debate electricimpulse.wordpress.com
Leslie,
Thanks so much for commenting!
And your point is a great one. I’m not sure it’s that people like people who are like them — or they just fall for the scare tactics.
Maureen Dowd wrote yesterday about how we WANT our navy seals to be elite — but not our politicians who command them!
My hope — hope! — is that the issues are just too big this time; too many people are paying too much attention to be drawn in by folksiness with no substance behind it!
-ND